[Mortgage Minute] Week of Nov. 16, 2015

Rates Stabilize after Retail Sales Fall Short

The recent trend toward higher mortgage rates paused last week. A shortfall in the retail sales data and increased expectations for additional stimulus in Europe were positive for mortgage rates, which ended the week flat.

After strong readings over the summer, retail sales, which account for roughly 70% of economic activity, have been disappointing for the last three months. In October, retail sales, excluding the volatile auto component, rose slightly from September, but the consensus was for a significantly larger increase. This followed declines in both August and September. Recent strong data on job gains and wage growth could lead to an improvement in coming months.

Weak economic data in Europe released over the past week also helped U.S. mortgage rates. Eurozone GDP growth during the third quarter was below expectations, mostly due to a decline in exports. This resulted in increased expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will expand its bond buying program to help boost economic growth. Increased demand for bonds from the ECB lowers yields around the world, including U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBS).


Week Ahead:

Factors: The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will come out on Tuesday. Industrial Production, an important indicator of economic activity, also will come out on Tuesday. The Minutes from the October 28 Fed meeting will be released on Wednesday. These detailed Minutes provide additional insight into the debate between Fed officials..

Volatility:        Moderate

Trend:              Flat

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