FED FOCUS

The primary focus this week will be results of the latest Federal Reserve meeting set to be released on Wednesday. Despite goading by President Trump, it is widely expected by the markets that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. It will be the post-meeting comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that will be the most likely influence on Mortgage rates. Powell is expected to justify the rate hold stance by citing need for further clarity as to the larger impact of potential tariffs, and confidence that the economy continues to be in good shape and doesn’t necessitate a hasty cut.

The latest economic reports last week were also supportive of the strength narrative, as shown in the strong US Non-Farm Payroll report. The NFP came out at 177k new jobs, and March job numbers were also revised higher. With employment viewed at fully healthy levels, the Fed will be watching inflation closely prior to any cut. Mortgage rates will have trouble making any meaningful progress until actual tariff policies are made clear, especially with China.

Home Loan Rate Volatility: HIGH
Home Loan Rate Trent: SLIGHTLY HIGHER