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Erik Hendrikson

Erik Hendrikson

brianjohnson2025-02-13T11:21:54-06:00February 4, 2019|Comments Off on Erik Hendrikson

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Mortgage Minute - EXTREME EMPLOYMENT Last week br

Mortgage Minute - EXTREME EMPLOYMENT

Last week brought us a fresh round of US employment data, with the bulk of the results showing continued strength. 💪

Despite a slight miss on the headline job number in the Non-Farm Payroll Report (143k vs 170k est), the overall unemployment rate moved lower ⬇️, hitting a new low of 4%. Furthermore, the labor force participation rate ticked up, as more workers piled into the workforce. Prior month job numbers were also revised up, and a final exclamation point ❗️ for the week was the average hourly earnings coming in higher as well.

This strong employment data does little to motivate the Fed to cut rates, as a strong labor market is a sign of a healthy economy. ✨

Mortgage rates had edged down 📉 leading up to the Friday NFP, but quickly surrendered those gains after the report release.

So again the focus bounced back to inflation this week. The big inflation report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes out along with its companion, the Producer Price Index (PPI). If we see a number at or below estimates, it will go a long way towards fostering a bond and mortgage rate rally. 🙏📉

The last two months have brought slight improvement on the inflation levels, so cool CPI and PPI numbers this week would be cheered by mortgage lenders and homebuyers. 👏🙌

The Fed primarily watches 👀 employment and inflation as the two factors to consider before cutting rates. With employment levels high ⬆️, it will take lower inflation levels to kick the Fed into rate cut mode. ✂️
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